Catholic probabilism is a specific moral theology doctrine designed to guide decision-making when an individual faces uncertainty regarding the morality of an action. It posits that if a course of action is supported by a genuinely authoritative opinion, it may be followed as morally permissible, even if an opposing view is considered more probable.
This framework was first formally articulated in 1577 by the Dominican theologian Bartholomew Medina. By providing a structured approach to conscience and moral ambiguity, the doctrine became a significant tool for navigating complex ethical dilemmas within the Catholic tradition.